- Чи не буде Глави держави в Ірані наприкінці 2026 року?4¢
- Чи буде Мухаммад Мірбакірі главою держави в Ірані наприкінці 2026 року?<1¢
- Чи буде Садег Ларіджані главою держави в Ірані наприкінці 2026 року?<1¢
- Чи буде Моджтаба Хаменеї главою держави в Ірані наприкінці 2026 року?82¢
- Чи стане Хасан Хомейні главою держави в Ірані наприкінці 2026 року?<1¢
- Чи стане Реза Пехлеві главою держави в Ірані наприкінці 2026 року?3¢
- Чи буде Хасан Шаріатмадинарі главою держави в Ірані наприкінці 2026 року?<1¢
- Чи буде Марʼям Раджаві головою держави в Ірані наприкінці 2026 року?<1¢
- Чи буде Массуд Раджаві главою держави в Ірані наприкінці 2026 року?<1¢
- Чи буде Сейед Хоссейн Мусавіан главою держави в Ірані на кінець 2026 року?<1¢
- Чи буде Реза Пірзаде головою держави в Ірані наприкінці 2026 року?<1¢
- Чи буде Навід Шомалі главою держави в Ірані на кінець 2026 року?<1¢
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Mojtaba Khamenei’s commanding 82.2% market share reflects his March 2026 selection by the Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader after Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late-February U.S.-Israeli strikes that opened the 2026 Iran war. Backed by the IRGC and his father’s clerical network, he secured the required two-thirds vote amid wartime consolidation, outpacing alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or Hassan Khomeini. Subsequent reports of Mojtaba’s injuries and reduced public role have prompted committee-based decision-making involving President Pezeshkian and security figures, yet no formal leadership change has occurred. Traders price continuity through year-end because institutional structures and recent precedent favor the sitting leader absent a new Assembly vote or major upheaval before December 2026. Lower-probability outcomes like Reza Pahlavi remain sidelined by the regime’s demonstrated resilience.