- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 25°C or below on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 26°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 27°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 28°C on September 3?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on September 3?7¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on September 3?17¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on September 3?47¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 3?21¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on September 3?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on September 3?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C or higher on September 3?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Persistent southwest monsoon activity, reinforced by a nearby tropical storm, is suppressing daytime heating in Manila and positioning 31°C as the leading outcome at 45% implied probability. Heavy cloud cover, high humidity (often 80-90%), and widespread showers or thunderstorms—forecast across multiple models for September 3—limit solar radiation and evaporative cooling effects that would otherwise push highs higher. Official and ensemble guidance from sources aligned with PAGASA consistently projects daily maxima near 29–30°C (roughly 84–86°F), with only modest afternoon breaks possible. This climatological pattern during peak habagat season favors the 31–32°C cluster (combined ~64.5% probability) over extremes, while the modest tail probabilities for 29°C or lower reflect uncertainty around rainfall timing and intensity. The nearby tropical storm east of northern Luzon is enhancing moist southwesterly flow, further anchoring these conditions and explaining why traders have converged on this narrow, rain-moderated range rather than drier-season peaks above 33°C. Updated model runs and PAGASA briefings over the next 24 hours will be the key near-term catalysts.