- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on September 4?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on September 4?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on September 4?19¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on September 4?31¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on September 4?36¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on September 4?10¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on September 4?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast consensus points to a maximum of 33–34 °C in Chengdu on September 4, 2026, under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with light northeast winds. Official and model guidance from sources such as the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles show highs stabilizing near 32–33 °C after September 3 readings of 32–33 °C, supported by subsidence under a regional high-pressure ridge that promotes clear conditions and strong daytime insolation. The Sichuan Basin’s topography can trap heat and limit nocturnal cooling, while minimal cloud cover and weak winds reduce mixing and allow temperatures to peak in the early-to-mid afternoon. Small spreads in model output—particularly regarding afternoon cloud build-up or scattered mountain showers—create the narrow 32–35 °C band that dominates trader positioning, with the slight edge to 34 °C reflecting modest upside bias in recent runs. New observational data and updated model guidance on September 3–4 will refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.