- Ukrayna, 31 Aralık 2026'ya kadar Kırım topraklarını geri alacak mı?1¢%1
- Ukrayna, 30 Haziran 2027'ye kadar Kırım topraklarını geri alacak mı?7¢%7
- %1%1,331 Aralık$3,7 Mn hacim
- %1%730 Haziran 2027$17,5 B hacim
Ukrainian long-range drone and missile strikes continue to target Russian logistics, fuel depots, power infrastructure, and drone launch sites across occupied Crimea, with confirmed hits near Hvardijske in early November 2026 causing repeated outages and further straining supply routes via the Kerch Bridge and alternate crossings. These operations have degraded Russian air defenses and naval access but have not produced ground advances into the peninsula itself. Ukrainian forces have reported localized territorial gains elsewhere, while Russia maintains firm control over Crimea through entrenched positions and reinforcements. Potential trilateral talks involving Ukraine, Russia, and the United States scheduled for November could address territorial questions, though Moscow continues to demand retention of the region. Traders price low probabilities of recapture by year-end, reflecting the scale of required military shifts and absence of conditions for a decisive offensive within the resolution window.
Kurallar
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Crimea is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.