- Rusya, 30 Kasım 2026'ya kadar Kostyantynivka'daki Royal Café Alex'i ele geçirecek mi?9¢%9
- Rusya, 31 Aralık 2026'ya kadar Kostyantynivka'daki Royal Café Alex'i ele geçirecek mi?16¢%16
- Rusya, 31 Mart 2027'ye kadar Kostyantynivka'daki Royal Café Alex'i ele geçirecek mi?51¢%51
- %3%8,630 Kasım$9,5 B hacim
- %3%1631 Aralık$39,2 B hacim
- %1%5131 Mart 2027$17 B hacim
Russian forces have conducted repeated assaults on the Kostiantynivka axis in Donetsk Oblast, with Ukrainian General Staff reports noting 20–33 attacks in single days during early November 2026 focused near the city and nearby settlements such as Vilne and Mykolaipillia. Russian troops first infiltrated Kostiantynivka in late 2025 and achieved partial tactical gains through mid-2026, including consolidation in northwestern sectors, though independent assessments indicate contested control rather than full seizure. Ukrainian defenders have repelled many advances while facing drone strikes, artillery, and glide bombs, with logistics strained in urban fighting. The specific location of the Royal Café Alex would depend on granular street-level progress amid ongoing infiltration attempts and Ukrainian counteractions. Scheduled developments include continued high-tempo operations on this sector of the front.
Kurallar
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the building at 48.538085° N, 37.688345° E in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The building will be considered captured if any part of the buildings grey area is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Building Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%201-7700edce03.png Building Location in Kostyantynivka: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%202-5ef8bae4d5.png Kostyantynivka Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Kostyantynivka%203-e95b097bca.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/Wzwm9D9ZTk6gkw1U9 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.