- Gemini Carbon 2 Kasım ile 8 Kasım 2026 arasında piyasaya sürülecek mi?4¢%4
- Gemini Carbon 9 Kasım ile 15 Kasım 2026 arasında piyasaya sürülecek mi?77¢%77
- Gemini Carbon 16 Kasım ile 22 Kasım 2026 arasında piyasaya sürülecek mi?12¢%12
- Gemini Carbon 23 Kasım ile 29 Kasım 2026 arasında piyasaya sürülecek mi?4¢%4
- Gemini Carbon 30 Kasım ile 6 Aralık 2026 arasında piyasaya sürülecek mi?3¢%3
- Gemini Carbon 7 Aralık ile 13 Aralık 2026 arasında piyasaya sürülecek mi?<1¢<%1
- Gemini Carbon 14 Aralık ile 20 Aralık 2026 arasında piyasaya sürülecek mi?<1¢<%1
- Gemini Carbon 21 Aralık ile 27 Aralık 2026 arasında piyasaya sürülecek mi?<1¢<%1
- Gemini Carbon 28 Aralık 2026 ile 3 Ocak 2027 arasında piyasaya sürülecek mi?<1¢<%1
- 3 Ocak 2027'ye kadar Gemini Carbon çıkışı olmayacak mı?<1¢<%1
- %2%3,92 Kasım–8 Kasım$22,3 B hacim
- %4%76,59 Kasım–15 Kasım$110,4 B hacim
- %1%1216 Kasım–22 Kasım$22,1 B hacim
- %2%3,723 Kasım–29 Kasım$9,3 B hacim
- %1%2,930 Kasım–6 Aralık$6,9 B hacim
- %0,27 Aralık–13 Aralık$4,2 B hacim
- %0,23 Ocak'a kadar çıkış yok$4,2 B hacim
Google’s October 28 announcement of Gemini 4 Carbon, positioned as its strongest frontier large language model with leading cybersecurity and long-horizon agentic capabilities, has driven the market’s heavy weighting toward a mid-November general release. The model launched with restricted access for a subset of cyber defenders through the Fairwind Program while Google completes U.S. government pre-release testing and refines safeguards, mirroring the rapid phased rollout of Gemini 4 Argon two weeks earlier. Traders see the company’s deliberate yet accelerated cadence, strong benchmark gains, and commitment to broader developer and consumer availability “as soon as possible” as the key factors behind the 80.5% implied probability for November 9–15. No firm timeline has been disclosed, leaving room for minor slippage if additional guardrail iterations are required.
Kurallar
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10). This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which "Carbon", or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report described above, is made available to the general public by Google. A qualifying model must be a Google AI model named "Carbon" (including variants or successor branding such as Gemini Carbon, Gemini 4 Carbon, or similar naming) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the report by Google or by a consensus of credible reporting. A model released under any other name, including a new Gemini model (e.g., Gemini 4.1) or an update to Gemini 4 Argon (including an update released under Argon's existing name or model identifier), will qualify only if it is confirmed by January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET to be the same model previously codenamed "Carbon", in which case the date on which it was made available to the general public will be used. Models merely derived from, distilled from, or incorporating improvements from Carbon will not qualify unless confirmed to be the same model. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.