- ABD Hükümeti 2026'da başka bir Anthropic AI modelinin kamu erişimini kaldırıyor mu?11¢%11
Traders assign an 81.5% implied probability to “No” on further U.S. government action to remove public access to an Anthropic large language model this year because the only prior incident—in June 2026, when Commerce Department export controls on Mythos 5 and Fable 5 prompted a temporary global suspension—was swiftly reversed after the company agreed to enhanced security monitoring. Subsequent developments, including GSA’s October expansion of discounted federal access to Claude models and court rulings clarifying limits on Pentagon exclusions, signal normalization rather than escalation. Anthropic’s October proposals for court-limited “kill-switch” authority and high-threshold intervention criteria further align company and regulator incentives, lowering the chance of renewed public-access restrictions before year-end. With no new verified safety incidents or model releases reported since early fall, the market consensus reflects the absence of fresh catalysts capable of shifting policy within the remaining weeks of 2026.
Kurallar
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to an Anthropic AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No". A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available Anthropic AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of models to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, Anthropic removes public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to an Anthropic AI model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify. The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one Anthropic AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action. The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to an Anthropic AI model by the resolution date, will not qualify. The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and Anthropic. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.