- Johnny Chiang bir sonraki Taichung Belediye Başkanlığı seçimini kazanacak mı?77¢%77
- Ho Hsin-chun bir sonraki Taichung Belediye Başkanlığı seçimini kazanacak mı?24¢%24
- Yang Chiung-ying bir sonraki Taichung Belediye Başkanlığı seçimlerini kazanacak mı?<1¢<%1
%1%76,5Johnny Chiang$44,6 B hacim
%23,7Ho Hsin-chun$38,3 B hacim
Johnny Chiang of the Kuomintang maintains a strong 77.5% implied probability in the Taichung mayoral race due to the party's decade-long incumbency advantage, unified nomination after his primary win, and consistent leads in multiple earlier polls showing double-digit margins over Democratic Progressive Party rival Ho Hsin-chun. Recent surveys have introduced volatility, including one late-October poll narrowing the gap to under 2 points and a November 3 survey placing Ho ahead by 10.7 points in raw support, though adjusted projections indicate a potential toss-up. Trader sentiment reflects these structural factors and historical voting patterns in the city ahead of the November 28 local elections, with minor candidates like Yang Chiung-ying and others priced near zero amid limited viability.
Kurallar
Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taichung as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).