- Marine Le Pen bir sonraki Fransa cumhurbaşkanlığı seçimlerinde ikinci tura kalacak mı?91¢%91
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon, bir sonraki Fransa cumhurbaşkanlığı seçimlerinde ikinci tura kalacak mı?52¢%52
- Édouard Philippe bir sonraki Fransa cumhurbaşkanlığı seçimlerinde ikinci tura kalacak mı?23¢%23
- David Lisnard bir sonraki Fransa cumhurbaşkanlığı seçimlerinde ikinci tura yükselecek mi?18¢%18
- Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?7¢%7
- Raphaël Glucksmann, bir sonraki Fransa cumhurbaşkanlığı seçiminde ikinci tura kalacak mı?6¢%6
- Will Xavier Bertrand advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?6¢%6
- Will Laurent Wauquiez advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?6¢%6
- Will Sarah Knafo advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?6¢%6
- Will Gabriel Attal advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?6¢%6
- Will Dominique de Villepin advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?6¢%6
- Will Sébastien Lecornu advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?5¢%5
%1%90,5Marine Le Pen$32,3 B hacim
%3%51,5Jean-Luc Mélenchon$34,1 B hacim
%1%22,5Édouard Philippe$16,2 B hacim
%17,9David Lisnard$243,7 B hacim
%1%7Jordan Bardella$25 B hacim
%6,4Raphaël Glucksmann$17 B hacim
%1%6,4Xavier Bertrand$2,4 B hacim
%1%5,9Laurent Wauquiez$1 B hacim
%1%5,9Sarah Knafo$8 B hacim
%5,6Gabriel Attal$9,2 B hacim
%5,5Dominique de Villepin$3 B hacim
%5,4Sébastien Lecornu$3,2 B hacim
Marine Le Pen of the Rassemblement National maintains a commanding lead in first-round polling averages near 35 percent, positioning her as the near-certain qualifier for the May 2027 runoff. Jean-Luc Mélenchon of La France Insoumise holds second place around 17 percent, outpacing fragmented centrist and center-right options including Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal. Recent infighting among Macron-aligned figures has split the moderate vote, boosting Mélenchon’s qualification odds across multiple October and early November surveys. Raphaël Glucksmann’s October primary win on the center-left has not yet altered the top-two pattern. The first round is scheduled for April 18, 2027, with trader pricing reflecting sustained polarization and limited consolidation among non-extreme candidates.
Kurallar
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).