- 31 Aralık itibarıyla Hürmüz Adası artık İran kontrolünde değil mi?5¢%5
US military strikes since March 2026 have targeted Iranian military sites on and near Kharg Island while deliberately avoiding oil infrastructure and any ground seizure that would alter Iranian governmental or military control. A naval blockade imposed in April, briefly eased, then reinstated in July has curtailed exports to near zero without transferring authority over the island. Recent satellite and vessel data through late October show limited tanker activity amid storage constraints, yet no verified occupation or contested control has occurred. Reports of possible post-midterm actions remain unconfirmed, and market pricing reflects the high threshold for resolution—requiring established non-Iranian control rather than strikes or blockades alone.
Kurallar
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.