- İran'ın hava sahasını 30 Kasım 2026'ya kadar tamamen kapatması?14¢%14
- 31 Aralık'a kadar İran hava sahasının tamamen kapatılması mı?28¢%28
- %1%13,530 Kasım$228,1 B hacim
- %5%27,531 Aralık$962,3 B hacim
Iran's Tehran FIR remains formally open to overflights despite ongoing US-Iran tensions and a fragile post-February 2026 ceasefire. The most recent development saw Iranian authorities impose a five-hour partial closure on November 6 amid fresh escalation risks, including sanctions targeting Iranian carriers and retaliatory warnings from Tehran. EASA has extended avoidance advisories for the full FIR through November 16 due to missile, drone, and air-defense threats, while the FAA prohibition runs into 2027. Airlines reroute extensively via Saudi corridors, adding significant flight times. These factors sustain elevated but contained risk, with no sustained full closure implemented and upcoming EASA reviews plus potential diplomatic or military signals as the primary near-term catalysts for any shift in trader assessments.
Kurallar
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.