Trump’s approval rating has fallen to second-term lows near 31-38% in late 2026 polling averages, reflecting sustained voter dissatisfaction with economic conditions and foreign policy. Inflation, elevated gas prices, and broader cost-of-living pressures have weighed heavily on sentiment, with net approval on the economy and inflation often trailing overall ratings by wide margins. The ongoing conflict with Iran has added further strain, as public confidence in the administration’s handling of the situation remains low. Support has softened even among some 2024 voters, including independents, younger adults, and Hispanics. With midterms concluded, traders assessing further downside will monitor incoming economic data releases, any shifts in tariff or energy policy, and developments in the Iran situation for signs of stabilization or additional erosion through year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s approval rating according to Silver Bulletin is equal to or below the listed value for any date between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin' approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. If the approval rating for December 31 is not published by January 4, 2027, 12:00 PM ET (noon), this market will resolve according to all previous datapoints.