Donald Trump’s Truth Social activity has shown sustained elevation around major political events, with daily medians near 20 posts and peaks exceeding 100 on high-news days. The week of November 6–13 follows the November 3 midterm elections, during which Trump recorded 190 posts on election day itself—the highest single-day total on the platform. Recent archives confirm averages of 19–27 posts daily in 2026, with sharp increases during campaign and results periods as he addresses outcomes, media coverage, and policy responses. Traders have priced the 200-plus bracket at 48 percent, reflecting expectations that post-election commentary and related developments will sustain or exceed that pace through the resolution window. Lower brackets capture more moderate scenarios consistent with baseline rates outside peak events.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between November 6, 12:00 PM ET and November 13, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, Truth Social itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.