- Bab el-Mandeb Boğazı 31 Ekim itibarıyla fiilen kapandı mı?<1¢<%1
- Bab el-Mandeb Boğazı 30 Kasım itibarıyla fiilen kapatıldı mı?4¢%4
- Bab el-Mandeb Boğazı 31 Aralık itibarıyla fiilen kapandı mı?8¢%8
- %0,231 Ekim$1,8 Mn hacim
- %3,930 Kasım$184,3 B hacim
- %7,531 Aralık$2,1 Mn hacim
Houthi territorial advances along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and control of islands including Perim/Mayyun since September 2026 have given the group leverage over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the southern gateway to the Red Sea and Suez route. A selective embargo on Saudi-linked vessels announced July 20 has cut overall transits 15–47% below pre-crisis levels, though daily commercial passages averaged around 34 in early November with modest recovery reported. The waterway remains formally open with no blanket closure declared, and Houthi statements continue to signal safe passage for non-Saudi traffic, while ISPS Security Level 3 persists due to missile, drone, and small-boat risks. Saudi-backed Yemeni forces have conducted ground operations near the strait with coalition air support, producing conflicting territorial claims, and broader regional tensions including Hormuz attacks add volatility. Shipping firms maintain rerouting options and heightened caution, keeping effective closure dependent on escalation or de-escalation in the ongoing Saudi-Houthi confrontation.
Kurallar
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.