- The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping จะเปิดตัวสุดสัปดาห์แรกในประเทศได้ดีที่สุดในปี 2026 หรือไม่?<1¢
- Dune: Messiah จะเปิดตัวสุดสัปดาห์แรกในประเทศได้ดีที่สุดในปี 2026 หรือไม่?<1¢
- Spider-Man: Brand New Day จะมีรายได้เปิดตัวสุดสัปดาห์ในประเทศที่ดีที่สุดในปี 2026 หรือไม่?65¢
- Avengers: Doomsday จะมีรายได้เปิดตัวสุดสัปดาห์ในประเทศที่ดีที่สุดในปี 2026 หรือไม่?36¢
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day leads with a 64.5% implied probability after delivering a record-setting $360 million domestic opening weekend in late July 2026, driven by strong presales, Tom Holland's established fanbase, and positive early reviews highlighting its emotional reset for the character. Trader consensus favors it as the year's benchmark because no other release has matched that figure yet. Avengers: Doomsday sits at 35.5% on the strength of its December 18 date, Robert Downey Jr.'s return as Doctor Doom, and recent trailer momentum from San Diego Comic-Con, though it faces direct competition from Dune: Messiah on the same weekend. The lower probabilities for Dune: Messiah and The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping reflect more modest tracking estimates and earlier November timing that typically yields smaller openings compared to summer or holiday blockbusters.