- US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 22?>99¢
- US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 25?>99¢
- US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?93¢
- US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?82¢
- US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?74¢
- US ceasefire against Iran continues through October 31?66¢
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
As of August 25, 2026, the June 17 U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) that established a 60-day ceasefire window has expired without extension or a final agreement. The interim accord aimed to halt military operations on all fronts (including Lebanon), reopen the Strait of Hormuz for commercial traffic, ease certain U.S. sanctions, and launch negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program. It collapsed amid mutual accusations of violations, including Iranian actions against shipping in the Strait and subsequent U.S. retaliatory strikes, with President Trump declaring the deal “over” in early July. Recent developments include continued diplomatic impasse, fresh U.S. sanctions targeting Iranian oil exports, and no confirmed major attacks on shipping or direct military exchanges in the immediate past week. Iranian officials have described the MoU as effectively ended due to non-compliance on sanctions relief and blockade issues, while mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have sought to revive talks without success. Low-level tensions persist around Hormuz access and regional proxies, but major hostilities have not resumed since the MoU’s breakdown. Trader sentiment for any “ceasefire continues through” resolution hinges on the absence of new strikes or escalatory moves in the coming days or weeks. Key upcoming catalysts include further U.S. economic measures, potential mediated technical discussions, and any Iranian responses to sanctions or naval activity. The situation remains fluid, with both sides maintaining core demands on nuclear limits, sanctions, and maritime security that have so far blocked de-escalation.