- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?100¢100%
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?100¢100%
- Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 achieve a successful splashdown?100¢100%
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31?100¢100%
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 28?100¢100%
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 29?100¢100%
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?0¢0%
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 31?0¢0%
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15?0¢0%
- Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster?0¢0%
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 19?0¢0%
- Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 26?0¢0%
This is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14.
SpaceX achieved a major milestone with Starship Flight 14 on September 28, 2026, when the vehicle completed its first orbital insertion after liftoff from Starbase, Texas, following FAA licensing the prior day. The upper stage deployed 26 operational Starlink V3 satellites—marking the first revenue-generating payload—then executed a deorbit burn and controlled splashdown in the Pacific despite an ascent engine issue that prompted an abbreviated mission. The Super Heavy booster also landed successfully in the Gulf of Mexico. Traders are pricing high probabilities for near-term launch and splashdown resolutions based on this demonstrated orbital capability, heat shield performance data, and progress toward reusable operations, with attention now shifting to Flight 15 timelines and potential booster catch attempts.
กฎ
If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.