- Will André Monteiro win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?<1¢
- Will Benedita da Silva win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?63¢
- Will Carlos Jordy win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?28¢
- Will Carlos Portinho win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?5¢
- Will Helio Secco win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?<1¢
- Will Luciano Mattos win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?<1¢
- Will Luiz Eugenio win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?<1¢
- Will Marcelo Crivella win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?4¢
- Will Marcos Dias win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?<1¢
- Will Michelly Xavier win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?<1¢
- Will Monica Benicio win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?<1¢
- Will Ó Clemente win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?<1¢
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio de Janeiro is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Recent Datafolha polling shows Benedita da Silva (PT) leading Senate vote intentions in Rio de Janeiro with 15%, ahead of a fragmented field where Carlos Jordy (PL) and Carlos Portinho (PL) sit at 8% each, followed by several others at 6% or below. High undecided and blank votes, combined with voters selecting two candidates for the state's two seats, sustain a competitive race for first place. Trader consensus reflects this positioning, with limited separation so far due to the broad candidate list and early campaign stage. Further polling, coalition formalizations, major endorsements, or shifts among undecided voters ahead of the October vote could widen gaps.