- Will PPI YoY be 5.9% or less in October?4¢
- Will PPI YoY be 6.0% in October?5¢
- Will PPI YoY be 6.1% in October?5¢
- Will PPI YoY be 6.2% in October?12¢
- Will PPI YoY be 6.3% in October?8¢
- Will PPI YoY be 6.4% in October?3¢
- Will PPI YoY be 6.5% in October?13¢
- Will PPI YoY be 6.6% in October?6¢
- Will PPI YoY be 6.7% in October?13¢
- Will PPI YoY be 6.8% or more in October?30¢
Recent hotter-than-expected September 2026 PPI data, which rose 6.3% year-over-year against forecasts near 5.3-5.4%, has shaped trader positioning for the October reading. Energy costs, particularly a 20%+ surge in gasoline prices tied to Middle East supply disruptions, drove the acceleration alongside broader goods and services pressures that lifted core measures. This follows a similarly firm September CPI at 3.7% YoY and has reinforced market focus on whether inflationary momentum will persist into October amid ongoing geopolitical risks and resilient demand. With probabilities dispersed across 6.0-6.8%+ buckets and no outcome exceeding 28.5%, the distribution reflects uncertainty over the pace of any moderation ahead of the mid-November release and the October 27-28 FOMC meeting.
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This is a market about the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand over the 12-month period ending October 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand over the 12-month period ending in October 2026, before seasonal adjustment, according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Producer Price Index report released for October 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/ppi/), currently scheduled to be released on November 13, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS PPI news release, which reports PPI over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 6.0%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. This market resolves on the total PPI for final demand figure, not the core PPI figure excluding food and energy. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next PPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.