- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 17°C or higher on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on September 5?69¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 7°C or below on September 5?5¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on September 5?29¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on September 5?30¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on September 5?31¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models from agencies including MetService and international sources indicate Wellington’s minimum temperature on September 5 will likely settle near 11°C, driven by persistent northwesterly winds advecting milder maritime air and substantial cloud cover limiting overnight radiative cooling. Springtime conditions in the Southern Hemisphere, with September climatological lows averaging 8–10°C at Wellington Airport, support this range while stronger winds reduce the chance of deeper cooling to 9°C or below. Recent observations through early September 5 show temperatures holding above 11°C, aligning with the market’s 68.5% implied probability for 11°C and lower odds for 10°C or colder. Updated model runs and official minimum readings later today remain the key data points that could shift trader consensus.