- Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C or below on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on September 5?3¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on September 5?5¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on September 5?46¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on September 5?56¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on September 5?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on September 5?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent Met Office guidance and ensemble model runs indicate a minimum temperature in London of 13–14°C overnight into September 5, driven by clear to partly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and radiative cooling under a mild maritime air mass. These conditions produce modest overnight temperature drops, with central London’s urban heat island likely preventing deeper cooling compared with suburban or airport sites. Forecasts from sources including Globalmeteo and Yr.no cluster around a 13–14°C low, creating tight market-implied odds between those two outcomes. Minor model differences in dew-point depression and boundary-layer mixing explain the near-even split, while probabilities for 12°C or lower remain low absent stronger high pressure or clearer skies. Updated official observations and any late-model revisions will determine final resolution.