- Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C or below on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on September 2?2¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on September 2?97¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on September 2?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current forecasts from the Met Office and other models indicate a mild overnight period for London on September 2, 2026, with minimum temperatures holding near 17–19°C amid persistent cloud cover, southwesterly winds of 10–15 mph, and limited radiative cooling under high pressure. These conditions align with the market’s overwhelming 92.5% implied probability for a 17°C low, consistent with the warmest September nights on record in recent years and well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 12.7°C. Traders appear to have incorporated the latest model consensus showing only modest temperature drops after sunset. A sudden clearing of skies or an unexpected northerly wind shift could allow greater heat loss and push readings toward 15–16°C, though such changes remain low-probability given the stable synoptic pattern.