- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?<1¢
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?3¢
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?8¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
US military strikes on Kharg Island military sites in March and April 2026, combined with repeated threats by President Trump to seize the facility that handles roughly 90 percent of Iran's crude exports, have shaped trader assessments of control scenarios amid the broader US-Iran conflict that began in late February. Iran has reinforced air defenses, laid mines, and maintained IRGC presence on the island while rerouting some oil flows around a Strait of Hormuz blockade that halted most Kharg loadings from late July until partial western terminal resumption on August 12. Ongoing ceasefire talks, competing claims over Hormuz transit, and Iranian warnings of retaliation against regional energy targets continue to frame the risks of escalation versus negotiated restraint. Any shift in US operational posture, blockade enforcement, or direct diplomatic progress on oil infrastructure access could alter implied probabilities reflected in current pricing.