- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C or below on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 15?57¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 15?38¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 15?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on October 15?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on October 15?<1¢
Recent official forecasts from sources including Met Office, Yr.no, and global models indicate a daytime high of 15–16°C for Wellington on October 15 amid a frontal passage with northerly then shifting winds, extensive cloud cover, and periods of rain that limit solar heating. These conditions align with spring climatology where average October highs reach 16°C, but the expected precipitation and marine influence cap extremes. Market-implied odds favoring 16°C (59.5%) and 17°C (37.0%) reflect this consensus on modest warming under the incoming airstream, with lower probabilities for outliers reflecting model agreement and low historical variability on similar synoptic setups. Updated model runs and MetService guidance will provide the final resolution data.
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This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.