- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on September 3?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on September 3?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 80°F or higher on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 61°F or below on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on September 3?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on September 3?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on September 3?27¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on September 3?45¢
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on September 3?22¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 3 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button. If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current National Weather Service and model guidance for San Francisco on September 3, 2026, centers on a marine-influenced day with persistent low clouds, a chance of drizzle or light showers, and southwesterly flow, keeping the daily maximum in the upper 60s to low 70s. This setup aligns closely with the market’s leading bins at 70-71 °F (44 %) and 68-69 °F (27.5 %), reflecting trader consensus around the most probable forecast range. Seasonal norms show an average high near 70 °F, but the active early-September storm system and associated cloud cover are suppressing temperatures several degrees below typical clear-day peaks. Model consensus and recent runs indicate limited afternoon clearing, reducing the chance of exceeding 72 °F, while the floor remains anchored above 66 °F by the mild airmass. Updated forecasts and any late-day clearing trends will be the key near-term drivers for shifts in implied probabilities.