- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C or below on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on October 14?88¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on October 14?10¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on October 14?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or higher on October 14?<1¢
Latest numerical weather models, including GFS runs and Open-Meteo guidance, show Munich under weak westerly flow with partly cloudy skies and light winds, supporting a daytime maximum near 17°C. Afternoon observations climbing into the mid-16°C range align with this consensus, driving the strong market-implied probability for an 18°C high. Minor forecast spread around intensification of any residual moisture or slight warming aloft keeps a small chance for 19°C alive, while historical October climatology for the region rarely exceeds these values under similar pressure patterns. Updated model runs and official DWD briefings through the afternoon will refine the exact peak before resolution.
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This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.