- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on September 7?43¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on September 7?51¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on September 7?5¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on September 7?6¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on September 7?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C or higher on September 7?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Forecast models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System show Milan’s September 7 maximum temperature centered near 31–32°C, producing the tight 42.5–50.5% split in trader-implied odds. Differentiating factors include afternoon cloud cover that limits surface heating versus clearer conditions that enhance solar insolation, along with boundary-layer winds advecting air from the Alps or Po Valley. Ensemble spread in these runs reflects typical short-range uncertainty in local mixing and urban heat-island amplification within the city. The Italian Meteorological Service’s next model update and any observed surface observations from early September 6 will provide the clearest near-term signal for resolution.