- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on September 6?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C or below on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on September 6?39¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on September 6?1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on September 6?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on September 6?41¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 42°C on September 6?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on September 6?13¢
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 43°C or higher on September 6?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecast model consensus points to a peak temperature of 36–37°C in Madrid on September 6, driven by strong daytime solar heating under partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and a persistent high-pressure ridge suppressing cloud cover and mixing. These conditions favor above-climatological maxima (historical September average high near 29°C), with ensemble spreads showing limited downside risk from unexpected cooling or increased humidity. The close 41.5%/38.5% split between 37°C and 36°C reflects minor model disagreements on exact afternoon peak timing and any late-day sea-breeze influence, while lower probabilities for 38°C or higher align with the absence of exceptional heat advection. Updated NHC-style guidance or late-morning observational data tomorrow will likely refine the final market resolution.