- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C or below on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on September 4?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on September 4?13¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on September 4?28¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 35°C on September 4?39¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on September 4?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 36°C on September 4?17¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 37°C on September 4?4¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C on September 4?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C or higher on September 4?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuck If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent model runs and China Meteorological Administration guidance point to a peak temperature of 34–35°C in Chongqing on September 4, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities. Persistent high pressure supports mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and strong daytime insolation, while light winds and the city’s basin topography limit mixing and enhance urban heat retention. Low precipitation chances (under 10%) further reduce evaporative cooling. Forecasters note typical early-September variability from subtle changes in cloud timing or boundary-layer moisture, which can shift the daily maximum by 1–2°C across ensembles. Updated CMA briefings and afternoon model outputs tomorrow will refine resolution criteria for this temperature threshold.