- Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?95¢
- Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?90¢
- Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?55¢
- Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?35¢
- Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?12¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".
OpenAI’s GPT-5 series models currently trail Anthropic’s Claude variants on Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboards, with GPT-5.4 Pro posting 58.7% and GPT-5.5 Pro at 57.2% versus Claude Fable 5.1’s leading 65% as of early September 2026. Progress stems from iterative GPT-5 releases incorporating stronger reasoning chains, tool use, and agentic workflows that tackle the benchmark’s 2,500 graduate-level questions across math, sciences, and humanities. Competitive pressure from Meta’s Muse Spark 1.1 at 62.1% and rapid Claude updates have shaped trader views on whether OpenAI can close the gap before year-end, with upcoming model iterations and potential benchmark revisions serving as key catalysts.