อัตราดอกเบี้ยเฟดลดลง...?

การเงินเฟดอัตราดอกเบี้ยธนาคารกลางสหรัฐชั้นประหยัดเจอโรมพาวเวลล์นโยบายเศรษฐกิจ

• เฟดจะปรับลดอัตราดอกเบี้ยภายในการประชุมเดือนกันยายน 2026 หรือไม่?2¢
• เฟดจะลดอัตราดอกเบี้ยภายในการประชุมเดือนตุลาคม 2026 หรือไม่?4¢
• เฟดลดอัตราดอกเบี้ยในการประชุมเดือนธันวาคม 2026 หรือไม่?13¢

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for January 2026, currently scheduled for January 27-28. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no January meeting takes place by February 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Elevated inflation and the Federal Reserve’s July 29 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.5–3.75% remain the dominant drivers of trader sentiment for 2026 rate outcomes. July CPI eased modestly to 3.4% year-over-year with core at 2.5%, yet readings stay well above the 2% target amid energy and shelter pressures. The July minutes and dot plot revealed a divided but hawkish committee, with nine participants favoring at least one hike by year-end and only one projecting a cut. Weaker recent payrolls and retail sales have tempered hike odds without reviving easing bets, as futures price an upward rate path. Key near-term catalysts include the September 15–16 FOMC meeting with updated projections and the August CPI release, which could shift the current 86% market-implied probability of zero cuts.