- Will at least 10 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30, 2026?28¢28 %
- Will at least 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30, 2026?13¢13 %
- Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30, 2026?8¢8 %
- Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30, 2026?7¢7 %
- Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by November 30, 2026?6¢6 %
- 3 %28 %10+Volym 6,7 tn $
- 4 %13 %20+Volym 1,9 tn $
- 3 %8 %30+Volym 2,9 tn $
- 2 %6,5 %40+Volym 2,3 tn $
- 1 %6,2 %50+Volym 1,3 tn $
Ongoing US-Iran military tensions since February 2026 have kept Strait of Hormuz commercial transits severely restricted, with AIS-visible traffic averaging just 7.1 vessels daily over the past week versus roughly 85 pre-crisis. Recent attacks, including multiple tankers struck by projectiles or mines in early November, combined with Iranian navigation-aid destruction and permit requirements, have further suppressed flows, pushing some oil movements to Gulf of Oman ship-to-ship transfers. Brent crude has traded near $97 amid the supply uncertainty, while war-risk insurance premiums remain elevated at multiples of normal levels. With November 30 resolution approaching, trader sentiment reflects the balance between persistent blockade dynamics and any near-term diplomatic or military developments that could alter transit viability.
Regler
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.