- Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of January 2027?47¢47 %
- Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of January 2027?39¢39 %
- Will Nvidia have the best Math AI model at the end of January 2027?6¢6 %
- Will Mistral have the best Math AI model at the end of January 2027?6¢6 %
- Will Amazon have the best Math AI model at the end of January 2027?5¢5 %
- Will Microsoft have the best Math AI model at the end of January 2027?5¢5 %
- Will Z.ai have the best Math AI model at the end of January 2027?5¢5 %
- Will Tencent have the best Math AI model at the end of January 2027?5¢5 %
- Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of January 2027?5¢5 %
- Will SpaceXAI have the best Math AI model at the end of January 2027?4¢4 %
- Will Xiaomi have the best Math AI model at the end of January 2027?4¢4 %
- Will Meta have the best Math AI model at the end of January 2027?4¢4 %
11 %46,5 %GoogleVolym 2,6 tn $
10 %39 %AnthropicVolym 3,3 tn $
2 %5,9 %NvidiaVolym 297,2 $
2 %5,5 %MistralVolym 465,8 $
1 %5,2 %AmazonVolym 538,8 $
1 %4,9 %MicrosoftVolym 173,3 $
4,9 %Z.aiVolym 227,5 $
4,9 %TencentVolym 656,4 $
4,6 %OpenAIVolym 243 $
1 %4,4 %SpaceXAIVolym 461,6 $
4,4 %XiaomiVolym 228,3 $
4,4 %MetaVolym 389,5 $
The closely matched odds around 50% for leading contenders reflect intense competition in mathematical reasoning benchmarks for text-based large language models, with no single lab holding a decisive edge as of late 2026. Trader sentiment centers on recent model updates from Anthropic and Google that have narrowed performance gaps on complex math tasks, alongside ongoing advances in training techniques and evaluation datasets that continue to shift relative standings. Lower probabilities for OpenAI, Meta, and Chinese labs like DeepSeek highlight the role of demonstrated benchmark leadership and release cadence. Key upcoming catalysts include anticipated model iterations and third-party evaluations before the January resolution, underscoring how small capability edges or new releases could rapidly alter the market-implied consensus.
Regler
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on January 31, 2027, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".