- Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be less than $1,062,000 on December 31?67¢67 %
- Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,062,000 and $1,083,000 on December 31?24¢24 %
- Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,083,000 and $1,104,000 on December 31?5¢5 %
- Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,104,000 and $1,125,000 on December 31?2¢2 %
- Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,125,000 and $1,146,000 on December 31?2¢2 %
- Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be between $1,146,000 and $1,165,000 on December 31?2¢2 %
- Will the median home value in San Francisco Metro be at least $1,165,000 on December 31?3¢3 %
- 13 %67 %<$1.062MVolym 21,3 tn $
- 9 %23,8 %$1.062M - $1.083MVolym 4,2 tn $
- 3 %5,5 %$1.083M - $1.104MVolym 3,8 tn $
- 1 %2,2 %$1.104M - $1.125MVolym 3,2 tn $
- 1,7 %$1.125M - $1.146MVolym 3,2 tn $
- 1,8 %$1.146M - $1.165MVolym 2,3 tn $
- 1 %3,2 %$1.165M+Volym 5,1 tn $
Trader consensus in the San Francisco metro median home value market heavily favors the sub-$1.062 million bin at 69% implied probability, reflecting recent data showing typical home values near $1.12 million as of September 2026 alongside expectations of limited further appreciation or modest seasonal softening into year-end. Elevated mortgage rates near 7.4%, the highest in three years, have tempered buyer affordability and slowed lower-priced segments despite robust demand from AI-driven wealth and tight inventory that has kept days on market around 16 and sale-to-list ratios above 106%. Year-over-year gains of 3-14% in various metro metrics stem from persistent supply constraints and strong seller leverage, yet broader Bay Area job losses and high rates introduce downside risks to the Zillow Home Value Index or comparable median measures by December 31. Upcoming winter seasonality and any further rate volatility represent the key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or shift the current pricing.
Regler
This market will resolve according to the median home value for all property types in the San Francisco Metro area on December 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be official data from the Parcl Labs Sales Price Index for the San Francisco Metro area (Parcl_ID: 2900336). The settlement price will be calculated by multiplying the published price index value (price per square foot) by 1700 square feet, which is the median home size in the San Francisco Metro area. Parcl is set to publish this data on December 31, 2026. If no data for December 31 is released by January 10, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve according to the most recently published data. (see: https://app.parcllabs.com/prediction-market-resolutions/60)