- Will there be fewer than 20 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?<1¢<1 %
- Will there be 20 to 34 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?75¢75 %
- Will there be 35 to 49 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?25¢25 %
- Will there be 50 or more West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?<1¢<1 %
- 74,9 %20 to 34Volym 38,6 tn $
- 1 %25,2 %35 to 49Volym 26,1 tn $
- 0,3 %50 or moreVolym 17,2 tn $
Elevated West Nile virus transmission in New York City this season, driven by a record 1,772 positive mosquito pools through early October—far above 2025 levels—has pushed confirmed neuroinvasive cases to 31, already exceeding the prior year's total and aligning with the recent 2022–2025 average of 31 annual cases. Warmer, extended summers favoring mosquito abundance and early June detection of infected pools have sustained higher activity across all boroughs into fall. With mosquito season winding down, the closely matched market probabilities between the 20–34 and 35–49 ranges reflect uncertainty over final reporting of milder or late-season infections, surveillance completeness for neuroinvasive outcomes, and any additional October detections before year-end resolution.
Regler
This market resolves based on the total number of West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases (encephalitis, meningitis, and acute flaccid paralysis) reported among New York City residents in 2026, as published by the New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene on its West Nile Virus Reports page at nyc.gov/site/doh/health/health-topics/west-nile-virus-reports.page. Cases are counted as whole numbers, so each outcome covers a distinct range with no overlap or gap. The 2026 count shown on the source as of January 1, 2027 is the starting figure. If the DOHMH publishes or revises the 2026 count on or after January 1, 2027, this market will resolve based on the count shown on the source at 11:59 PM ET on the 14th day after the first such update, or on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, whichever comes first. If no such update occurs, this market will resolve on March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, based on the 2026 count shown on the source at that time. If no 2026 count has been published on the source by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the sum of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive disease case counts reported by CDC ArboNET for the five New York City counties (Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond). Revisions published after this market resolves will not be considered. If the DOHMH changes its reporting format or URL structure, the closest equivalent NYC Health Department publication of 2026 West Nile neuroinvasive case data will be used.