- Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher?88¢88 %
- Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?46¢46 %
- Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?20¢20 %
- Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher?16¢16 %
- 10 %88 %55%+Volym 43,3 tn $
- 24 %46 %60%+Volym 57,3 tn $
- 14 %19,5 %65%+Volym 29,4 tn $
- 11 %16,3 %70%+Volym 8 tn $
Recent Anthropic Claude releases, particularly Fable 5.2 and Opus 5.5, have posted the highest HLE scores across multiple leaderboards at 65–74% depending on tool use and protocol, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-6 Astra at roughly 54–57% on the same evaluations. HLE’s 2,500 expert-authored questions test frontier reasoning and knowledge with minimal leakage, and variations in tool access or verification explain score spreads. OpenAI’s latest models demonstrate competitive scaling on reasoning subsets yet trail in overall accuracy, reflecting differences in training emphasis and post-training. Additional GPT variants or updates before year-end remain possible catalysts, though current verified results place OpenAI behind the top non-OpenAI systems on this benchmark.
Regler
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model published by OpenAI achieves at least the specified accuracy on Humanity’s Last Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For resolution, “accuracy” refers solely to the value labeled “HLE Accuracy” or a clear equivalent metric if the data’s presentation or terminology is restructured, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error or any other displayed metric. The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard at https://agi.safe.ai/. If the resolution source becomes unavailable during the listed timeframe, this market will remain open to allow the relevant data to become available again. If the source remains unavailable after the end of the listed timeframe or is otherwise confirmed to be permanently unavailable, official Humanity’s Last Exam results published elsewhere may be used. If no official alternative source is available, this market will resolve to "No".