- Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?75¢75 %
- Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?24¢24 %
- Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?1¢1 %
- 4 %74,5 %Hike–Pause–HikeVolym 185,7 tn $
- 4 %23,5 %Hike–Pause–PauseVolym 173,6 tn $
- 1 %OtherVolym 38,8 tn $
The primary driver behind the 78% implied probability for a Hike–Pause–Hike sequence in the September–December 2026 FOMC meetings is the combination of September’s unanimous 25-basis-point rate increase to the 3.75–4.00% federal funds target range and the widely anticipated October 28 pause. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, strong economic growth with upward revisions to GDP, and a resilient labor market have sustained hawkish trader sentiment, reinforced by the September dot plot median projecting a 4.1% year-end rate and post-meeting minutes indicating most participants expect another tightening move before year-end. Markets currently assign roughly an 80% chance of a December hike at the final 2026 meeting. The 20% probability on Hike–Pause–Pause reflects residual uncertainty around incoming data and the potential for the committee to extend its wait-and-see stance after the midterms.
Regler
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm