- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2027 meeting?4¢4 %
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2027 meeting?9¢9 %
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2027 meeting?60¢60 %
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2027 meeting?17¢17 %
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2027 meeting?2¢2 %
- 4,2 %50+ bps decreaseVolym 3,1 tn $
- 1 %9 %25 bps decreaseVolym 4 tn $
- 3 %59,5 %No changeVolym 12,2 tn $
- 4 %16,5 %25 bps increaseVolym 24,5 tn $
- 1,9 %50+ bps increaseVolym 1,8 tn $
Elevated September 2026 PCE inflation at 3.6% year-over-year, with core at 3.1%, alongside robust Q3 GDP growth of 3.4%, positions no change or a 25 basis point increase as the leading market-implied outcomes for the April 2027 FOMC meeting. These readings, driven partly by energy prices, have reinforced trader consensus on the need for further tightening to return inflation to the 2% target, supporting the 56.5% probability on no change and 20.0% on a hike from the current 3.75-4.00% range. Labor market cooling, including September payrolls of just 29,000 and 4.2% unemployment, tempers expectations for aggressive moves, while the December 2026 FOMC projections and November CPI data remain key swing factors in the rate path.
Regler
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled to conclude on April 28, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.