- Will the Bank of England decrease the Bank Rate by 50+ bps at the March meeting?5¢5 %
- Will the Bank of England decrease the Bank Rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?3¢3 %
- Will the Bank of England make no change to the Bank Rate at the March meeting?59¢59 %
- Will the Bank of England increase the Bank Rate by 25 bps at the March meeting?31¢31 %
- Will the Bank of England increase the Bank Rate by 50+ bps at the March meeting?4¢4 %
- 5,4 %50+ bps decreaseVolym 521,6 $
- 3,5 %25 bps decreaseVolym 11,2 tn $
- 1 %59 %No ChangeVolym 7,9 tn $
- 3 %31 %25 bps increaseVolym 661,6 $
- 4,4 %50+ bps increaseVolym 514,8 $
Recent Middle East-driven energy price surges have lifted UK CPI inflation to 3.5% in September 2026, with the Bank of England projecting a peak near 5% by mid-2027, prompting its first rate hike in over three years to 4% on November 5. Market-implied odds for the March 2027 decision reflect this hawkish shift, with traders pricing a roughly even chance of no change versus a further 25 basis point increase amid resilient labor market data and GDP growth. The December 17 meeting and incoming inflation prints remain key near-term catalysts, while the central bank's guidance emphasizes vigilance against second-round effects without committing to a sustained tightening cycle.
Regler
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the March 2027 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its March 2027 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for March 18, 2027, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's March 2027 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.