- Will OpenAI have the second highest private market valuation at the end of November?96¢96 %
- Will Anthropic have the second highest private market valuation at the end of November?3¢3 %
- Will ByteDance have the second highest private market valuation at the end of November?3¢3 %
- Will Neuralink have the second highest private market valuation at the end of November?1¢1 %
- Will Revolut have the second highest private market valuation at the end of November?1¢1 %
- Will Anduril have the second highest private market valuation at the end of November?<1¢<1 %
- Will Canva have the second highest private market valuation at the end of November?<1¢<1 %
- Will Databricks have the second highest private market valuation at the end of November?<1¢<1 %
- Will Perplexity have the second highest private market valuation at the end of November?<1¢<1 %
- Will Stripe have the second highest private market valuation at the end of November?<1¢<1 %
1 %95,5 %OpenAIVolym 6,9 tn $
3,2 %AnthropicVolym 804,2 $
2,5 %ByteDanceVolym 1,6 tn $
2 %1 %NeuralinkVolym 489,1 $
1 %1 %RevolutVolym 525,6 $
1 %1 %AndurilVolym 519,2 $
1 %1 %CanvaVolym 449,1 $
2 %1 %PerplexityVolym 330 $
2 %1 %StripeVolym 484,1 $
OpenAI’s dominant 94% market-implied odds reflect its position as the leading private AI company by valuation after a $122 billion March 2026 round at $852 billion and ongoing talks for additional capital near $1.25 trillion. SpaceX remains the clear leader, while recent secondary data and funding activity place OpenAI well ahead of rivals such as Anthropic at $965 billion and ByteDance near $330–500 billion. Anthropic’s October S-1 filing and expected IPO before year-end would remove it from private rankings, further consolidating trader consensus around OpenAI by month-end. A delay in that listing or an unexpected surge in another firm’s tender activity could still shift outcomes, though current verified valuations make such moves improbable.
Regler
This market will resolve to the listed company with the second largest private market valuation on the last trading day of November 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for all business dates in the specified period by 1:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the specified date, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on the third business day following the specified date. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The listed companies will be ranked by their private market valuation as determined under these rules. If two or more companies are tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the companies' listed names. This market will resolve to the company that occupies the second highest position after applying this ranking. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data. The resolution sources for this market are: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49 https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757 https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-f364d2ab-34b7-48c9-a2b7-af62da804953 https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7 https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330 https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-70f3c3d1-565b-491a-83df-54d0c8b08186 https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/data?start_date=2025-12-31&view=valuation&companies=company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0