- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?54¢54 %
- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?33¢33 %
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?10¢10 %
- Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?6¢6 %
- Will SpaceX be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?<1¢<1 %
- Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?<1¢<1 %
- Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?<1¢<1 %
- Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?<1¢<1 %
- Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?<1¢<1 %
5 %54 %NVIDIAVolym 45,2 tn $
6 %32,5 %AppleVolym 30,2 tn $
5 %9,5 %AlphabetVolym 9,6 tn $
10 %6,1 %MicrosoftVolym 5,5 tn $
0,2 %SpaceXVolym 3,1 tn $
NVIDIA leads with 50% implied probability for the second-largest company by market cap at the end of December 2026, driven by sustained AI infrastructure demand and its dominant position in GPUs powering large language models. Traders see recent semiconductor supply chain stabilization and enterprise adoption of AI training clusters as key tailwinds, outpacing Apple’s 26.5% odds tied to iPhone sales cycles and services growth. Microsoft at 14% reflects Azure cloud momentum and OpenAI integration, while Alphabet’s 6.5% hinges on search advertising resilience amid AI search competition. Key differentiators include NVIDIA’s hardware moat versus the software and consumer ecosystems of peers, with earnings reports and AI benchmark results as near-term catalysts that could shift sentiment before year-end resolution.
Regler
This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.