- Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?94¢
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?<1¢
- Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?1¢
- Will Avengers: Doomsday have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?2¢
- Will Dune: Messiah have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?5¢
- Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Toy Story 5’s record $160 million domestic opening in June, the largest of 2026 until Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s $360 million July debut, anchors trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability for third place. Strong family positioning, 94% Rotten Tomatoes critic and audience scores, an A CinemaScore, and franchise precedent for leggy holds have sustained its edge over later releases. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie’s $132 million April start and The Odyssey’s $124 million bow sit just behind, but no subsequent title has approached Toy Story 5’s benchmark. Late-year tentpoles such as Avengers: Doomsday would need outsized tracking to reorder the top three, a low-probability scenario given current release patterns and historical animated sequel performance.