- US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?3¢
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part. Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify. Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify. Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Recent U.S. Treasury actions have reinforced maximum-pressure sanctions on Iran, with the July revocation of General License X—originally authorizing oil and petrochemical sales through August 21—followed by the August 24 launch of Operation Economic Outcast. This initiative targets shadow-fleet vessels, digital-asset facilitators, and secondary sanctions exposure across shipping, gold, and aviation sectors, limiting Tehran’s ability to monetize crude exports at market rates. The moves have curtailed Iranian revenue potential estimated at several billion dollars during the prior waiver window and supported firmer Brent crude pricing amid supply concerns. With no new waivers announced and talks stalled, trader-implied odds reflect low near-term reissuance prospects ahead of the market’s late-August resolution horizon.