- Will Green Party (MP) win between 7% and 9% of all valid votes?37¢
- Will Green Party (MP) win at least 9% of all valid votes?7¢
- Will Green Party (MP) win less than 5% of all valid votes?17¢
- Will Green Party (MP) win between 5% and 7% of all valid votes?40¢
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Green Party (MP) in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Recent polling aggregates place Miljöpartiet support near 7%, within a narrow band of roughly 6-8% across major institutes as the 13 September Riksdag election nears. The party has held relatively steady while the Social Democrats have lost ground in the final weeks, with some of those voters shifting toward the Greens, Vänsterpartiet, and Centre Party. This movement keeps the centre-left bloc competitive but compresses margins for smaller parties. Traders price the 7-9% and 5-7% brackets most heavily because late-campaign turnout among younger and urban voters, final bloc negotiations, and any last-minute emphasis on climate or energy policy could still nudge the result either side of 7%. The four-percent threshold remains distant for the Greens under current trends.