- Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will the Moderate Party (M) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will the Centre Party (C) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?40¢
- Will the Left Party (V) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?28¢
- Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?12¢
- Will the Green Party (MP) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?13¢
- Will the Liberals (L) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?<1¢
- Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) win the fourth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?<1¢
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election. If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Recent polling averages place the Centre Party and Left Party in the strongest position to finish fourth in the September 13 Swedish parliamentary election, with the Greens and Christian Democrats trailing in the same narrow band. The race remains tight because these four smaller parties have shown only modest, volatile shifts in support amid a broader contest between the centre-left and Tidö-aligned blocs. Cost-of-living pressures, energy policy, and security concerns continue to shape voter movement, while the Liberals’ persistent sub-4% readings limit right-bloc options. Any late swing in turnout among undecided voters or bloc consolidation could reorder the mid-table finishers before election day.