- Будет ли следующая модель Claude Opus выпущена до 31 августа 2026 года?11¢
- Будет ли следующая модель Claude Opus выпущена к 31 октября 2026 года?81¢
- Будет ли следующая модель Claude Opus выпущена до 31 декабря 2026 года?96¢
- Будет ли следующая модель Claude Opus выпущена к 30 сентября 2026 года?36¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Opus model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Claude Opus refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Opus. Qualifying models include Claude Opus 5.1, Claude Opus 5.5, Opus 6, or any other Opus variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Haiku, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Opus by Anthropic. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Anthropic’s recent cadence of Claude Opus releases—Opus 4.6 in February, 4.7 in April, 4.8 in May, and Opus 5 on July 24, 2026—has established a pattern of rapid, incremental upgrades focused on coding, agentic workflows, long-horizon reasoning, and reliability benchmarks. Opus 5 delivered a step-change over 4.8 with thinking enabled by default, expanded context, and improved performance on complex enterprise tasks at the same price point, reflecting competitive pressure from other frontier labs. With no new Opus announcements in the past month, trader sentiment hinges on whether Anthropic sustains this tempo or pauses for a larger leap, alongside broader dynamics like API availability, enterprise adoption, and benchmark gains in areas such as SWE-bench or multi-agent orchestration.