- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C or below on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on September 3?2¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on September 3?12¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on September 3?48¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on September 3?36¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on September 3?3¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on September 3?<1¢
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C or higher on September 3?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent forecasts from Polish meteorological sources and global models indicate partly cloudy skies with moderate westerly winds and surface pressure near 1017 hPa over Warsaw on September 3, supporting a daily maximum near 23°C. Variable afternoon cloud cover and modest humidity around 50% are limiting peak solar heating while preventing stronger radiative cooling, keeping the outcome tightly contested between 23°C and 24°C. Minor differences in model timing for breaks in cloud or boundary-layer mixing explain the narrow spread in market-implied odds, with traders weighting the latest observational trends and ensemble consensus ahead of final verification.