- Будет ли максимальная температура в Анкаре 16°C или ниже 14 октября?99¢
- Будет ли максимальная температура в Анкаре 17°C 14 октября?<1¢
- Будет ли самая высокая температура в Анкаре 18°C 14 октября?<1¢
- Будет ли максимальная температура в Анкаре 19°C 14 октября?<1¢
- Будет ли максимальная температура в Анкаре 20°C 14 октября?<1¢
- Будет ли максимальная температура в Анкаре 21°C 14 октября?<1¢
- Будет ли максимальная температура в Анкаре 22°C 14 октября?<1¢
- Будет ли максимальная температура в Анкаре 23°C 14 октября?<1¢
- Будет ли максимальная температура в Анкаре 24°C 14 октября?<1¢
- Будет ли максимальная температура в Анкаре 25°C 14 октября?<1¢
- Будет ли максимальная температура в Анкаре 26°C или выше 14 октября?<1¢
Official forecasts from meteorological models and real-time observations place Ankara’s highest temperature on October 14 at 15–16°C under persistent cloud cover, light rain, and easterly winds that limit daytime warming. This aligns with the 99% market-implied probability for 16°C or below, as multiple sources including GFS data and agency guidance show no significant warming trend through the afternoon. Historical October averages are several degrees higher, but the current synoptic pattern featuring a moist, stable air mass suppresses temperatures. Only an unexpected rapid clearing or model revision showing sustained solar heating could push readings above 16°C, an outcome traders currently assign negligible odds.
Правила
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.