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The 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, given by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences, honor the best in American prime time television programming aired between June 1, 2025, until May 31, 2026. The awards ceremony is scheduled for September 14, 2026, at the Peacock Theater in Downtown Los Angeles, California This market will resolve according to the person who wins the 2026 Emmy award for “Outstanding supporting actress in a limited or anthology series or movie”. If for any reason no winner is declared by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of overall cancellation or a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominee which comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences and the Emmys, including data from their websites (e.g. https://theemmys.tv/, https://www.televisionacademy.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Linda Cardellini’s commanding performance as the enigmatic Carol in HBO’s “DTF St. Louis” has driven overwhelming trader consensus at 100% implied probability. The dark comedy limited series earned 13 Emmy nominations and secured early wins in writing, directing, and supporting actor categories at the Creative Arts Emmys, building on strong precursor recognition including Astra and Gotham Television Awards. Cardellini’s layered, restrained portrayal stood out amid competition from Dakota Fanning in “All Her Fault,” Laurie Metcalf in “Monster: The Ed Gein Story,” and others, aligning with historical patterns favoring frontrunners with broad industry support and multiple guild nods. An upset would require an unprecedented late surge from a lesser-momentum contender, though the current positioning reflects decisive voter sentiment.