- Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?6¢6 %
Deep disagreements over venue, preconditions, and core issues such as territory and postwar security guarantees continue to block any direct Putin-Zelenskyy meeting. Russia insists talks occur in Moscow or only after technical agreements are finalized, while Ukraine seeks neutral ground and leader-level resolution of territorial questions. Recent U.S.-mediated trilateral negotiations at the team level, scheduled for Abu Dhabi in mid-November 2026, focus on security frameworks rather than immediate summits. Persistent battlefield stalemate and differing demands on NATO expansion and demilitarized zones reinforce the trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% implied probability for no meeting by December 31, 2026. A verified breakthrough in those talks or unexpected diplomatic concessions could still alter timelines.
Reguli
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vladimir Putin meets with Volodymyr Zelenskyy between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Zelenskyy and Putin are present and interact with each other in person. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.